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Introduction

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) is a high-value, perennial crop that plays vital roles in Nigeria’s rural livelihoods, agro-industry, and national development strategies (Udoh et al., 2015). This crop significantly supported employment and foreign-exchange earnings, especially in southern Nigeria, though expansion has also contributed to land-use change and deforestation (Onuoha and Ogbuji, 2015; Fasona et al., 2022). Despite its role in improving livelihoods and national development, this crop did not receive the attention of policymakers. In the context of Nigeria’s broader national priorities, economic diversification, climate adaptation, rural development, and food security, strengthening the sustainability of the oil palm sector has become increasingly important. Oil palm requires a stable-warm climate, which makes its production very vulnerable to climate change and variability. Temperature and drought stresses reduce photosynthesis and fruit development (Paterson et al., 2017). The crop’s sensitivity to temperature, rainfall variability, and extreme events makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, posing risks to yields (Abubakar et al., 2023). Current national initiatives, such as Oil Palm Development Initiative launched in 2019 to boost production and close the supply gap, a national initiative for Sustainable and Climate-Smart Oil Palm Smallholders (NISCOPS) under Solidaridad Network’s advocacy, and the specific Edo State Oil Palm Programme (ESOPP) aimed at institutionalizing sustainable development, highlight the importance of policy choices in determining whether oil palm drives sustainable rural transformation or deepens environmental pressures.

Globally, oil palm is one of the most important perennial crops (Wahid et al., 2005), supplying more than 35% of total vegetable oil production. Oil Palm production provides economic opportunities in job creation and poverty alleviation, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where smallholders face food insecurity (Jackson et al., 2019). Indonesia and Malaysia dominate production, accounting for over 85% of global exports (Dislich et al., 2017; Abubakar et al., 2021), followed by Thailand, Colombia, and Nigeria. As Africa’s largest producer and among the top five globally, Nigeria occupies a strategic position in the global palm oil economy. Historically, Nigeria was the leading exporter in the early 20th century, but its share declined due to underinvestment and structural challenges (Akeem et al., 2024). Despite this, the crop remains a cornerstone of the country’s agricultural sector.

Oil palm thrives best under favourable climatic conditions. The ideal daily temperature range is 27–280C, with monthly maximums of 30–320C and minimums of 21–240C (Verheye, 2010; Zainal et al., 2012). During the coldest month, temperatures should not fall below 180C. Seedling development halts when temperatures drop below 150 °C, and growth ceases once values fall under 180 °C. Deviations from conditions such as prolonged drought or excessive rainfall adversely affect fruiting and oil quality. Equally important are soil requirements: the crop performs best in deep, well-drained loamy or sandy loam soils, moderately acidic (pH 4–8), with good organic content (Duke, 1989). Shallow or poorly drained soils, especially those prone to waterlogging, restrict root development and reduce yields. Besides, fluctuations in soil moisture directly impact oil palm yield and quality, necessitating effective management practices (Abubakar et al., 2023), particularly, climate-smart soil management strategies to enhance oil palm productivity. If timely action is not taken, Nigeria risks worsening yield declines, increasing smallholder vulnerability, expanding deforestation pressures, and missing key opportunities for climate-resilient agricultural growth.

Economically, palm oil and palm kernel oil are indispensable raw materials for food processing, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, animal feed, and biofuels (Abubakar et al., 2022). In Nigeria, the sector employs millions of smallholders and contributes significantly to agricultural Gross Domestic Product. Palm oil consistently ranks among the top non-cereal commodities in domestic consumption and value addition, with renewed policy interest under the NISCOPS and ESOPP as part of broader diversification away from crude oil dependence.

Looking ahead, climate change poses significant challenges (Fleiss et al., 2017). Rising mean annual temperatures, shifting rainfall regimes, and more frequent extreme events are expected to alter the geography of oil palm cultivation. Some traditionally favourable areas may become marginal due to heat and drought stress, while new areas could become suitable (Fleiss et al., 2017). Thus, by the end of this century, these shifts could redefine Nigeria’s palm belt, creating opportunities in emerging zones but also heightening risks of yield decline, pest outbreaks, and unsustainable land-use change. Sustainable oil palm development in Nigeria will therefore depend on forward-looking policies that integrate climate projections into agricultural planning, strengthen smallholder resilience, and reconcile expansion with environmental conservation. This policy brief therefore provides evidence to guide actionable policy decisions—whether through climate zoning of production areas, increased budgetary allocation for climate-related R&D, targeted funding and credit for smallholders, or stronger inter-ministerial coordination to improve institutional reforms in the oil palm sector.

Key message

• Climate change is shifting oil palm suitability southward.
• Highly suitable zones will concentrate in humid southern states by 2100.
• Northern and central regions will face increasing heat and water stress.
• Total suitable land remains stable but is redistributed across zones.
• Focus on replanting and yield improvement over land expansion.
• Promote drought and heat-tolerant oil palm varieties.
• Strengthen smallholder access to finance, inputs, and markets.
• Use spatial planning to guide sustainable expansion and protect forests.
• Align oil palm policy with national climate and biodiversity goals.
• Establish climate monitoring and early warning systems for this sector.

Future Shifts in Oil Palm Suitability under Changing Climate

Figure 1 illustrates the spatial dynamics of oil palm suitability across Nigeria for four time periods: 2021, 2040, 2080, and 2100. In 2021 (Figure 1a), suitability zones are distributed across southern and parts of central Nigeria, with highly suitable and suitable areas concentrated in the humid south, while marginal and unsuitable zones dominate the north. This pattern reflects the current ecological adaptation of oil palm, which thrives in warm, humid climates with adequate rainfall and minimal dry season stress. By 2040 (Figure 1b), projections indicate a gradual contraction of highly suitable zones, particularly in transitional areas between the humid south and the drier central belt. While southern states such as Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa, and parts of Ondo retain high suitability, central regions like Kwara, Kogi, and Benue shift from moderate to marginal suitability. The north remains largely unsuitable due to excessive heat and water stress.

The trend intensifies by 2080 (Figure 1c), where the highly suitable areas become restricted to the coastal south and rainforest belt. A large portion of the central zone is projected to move into the marginal category, while the unsuitable belt expands southward, replacing areas that are currently moderately suitable. This suggests increasing climate stress that could hinder oil palm expansion beyond traditional production zones. By 2100 (Figure 1d), the situation becomes more pronounced. Highly suitable areas are projected to shrink further, being confined largely to the southeastern and southwestern rainforest regions. The north and north-central states remain entirely unsuitable, while the marginal suitability zone dominates much of central Nigeria. This highlights a long-term southward shift in oil palm viability driven by rising temperatures, reduced rainfall reliability, and greater evapotranspiration. These projections highlight the urgent need for adaptation strategies.

Figure 1: Projected oil palm suitability maps for Nigeria under changing climate conditions: (a) 2021 (baseline), (b) 2040, (c) 2080, and (d) 2100 (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5)). The maps show shifts from highly suitable and suitable zones concentrated in the humid southern regions toward increasing marginal and unsuitable conditions in central and northern Nigeria, reflecting the influence of rising temperatures and water stress on future oil palm production potential.

Table 1 shows a clear shift in the spatial distribution of oil palm suitability in Nigeria from 2021 to 2100. The area classified as not suitable declines markedly from 331,107.01 km² (38.94%) in 2021 to 134,360.08 km² (15.83%) by 2100, indicating that some previously unsuitable zones may transition into marginal or moderate suitability under changing climate conditions. Similarly, marginally suitable areas decrease from 23.32% in 2021 to 11.97% in 2100, reflecting a contraction of borderline zones. In contrast, suitable and highly suitable categories expand substantially, with suitable areas rising from 11.37% to 29.18% and highly suitable areas doubling from 10.05% to 20.76% over the same period. Moderate suitability fluctuates, peaking in 2040 (24.82%) before slightly declining by 2100 (22.25%). These trends suggest that while the overall land base for oil palm remains stable, climate change will redistribute suitability, consolidating production potential in the southern and central zones. Policymakers must therefore anticipate regional transitions, promote adaptive practices, and safeguard biodiversity to ensure sustainable oil palm expansion under future climate scenarios.

Table 1: Statistics of the Area and Percentage of Oil Palm Climate Suitability in Nigeria (2021 – 2100)

S/N	Suitability Type	Area in Square km (2021)	Percentage (%) 2021	Area in Square km (2040)	Percentage (%) 2040	Area in Square km (2080)	Percentage (%) 2080	Area in Square km (2100)	Percentage (%) 2100
1	Not Suitable	331107.01	38.94	169525.18 (-)	19.97	145603.40 (-)	17.15	134360.08(-)	15.83
2	Marginal Suitable	198255.04	23.32	147997.22 (-)	17.44	117078.60 (-)	13.79	101619.85 (-)	11.97
3	Moderate Suitable	138760.57	16.32	210633.33 (+)	24.82	191718.25 (-)	22.59	188850.38 (-)	22.25
4	Suitable	96686.06	11.37	190721.32 (+)	22.47	239548.49 (+)	28.22	247719.96 (+)	29.18
5	Highly Suitable	85454.13	10.05	129918.61 (+)	15.31	154846.91 (+)	18.24	176245.39 (+)	20.76
	Total	850262.82	100.00	848795.66	100.00	848795.66	100.00	848795.66	100.00

Policy Pathways for Climate-Resilient Oil Palm Development in Nigeria

Oil palm is a key economic crop in Nigeria, supporting rural livelihoods and contributing to national income. However, changing climate conditions, including rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and increasing evapotranspiration, pose significant risks to its productivity and expansion. Projections indicate a gradual southward shift in highly suitable zones, with future cultivation potential concentrating in the humid southern regions. To sustain growth and ensure resilience, Nigeria’s oil palm sector must adopt climate-smart strategies that enhance productivity, reduce deforestation, and safeguard livelihoods. Integrating climate projections into national agricultural planning, promoting adaptive technologies, and supporting smallholders through finance and extension services are critical steps toward a sustainable and climate-resilient oil palm industry. Key policy areas, objectives, phased actions (near-, mid-, and long-term), lead actors, financing mechanisms, and measurable indicators, providing a roadmap forsustainable adaptation and value-chain development under future climate scenarios is indicated in Table 2.

Table 2. Policy framework for building climate resilience in Nigeria’s oil palm sector

Policy Area	Objective	Actions (Near / Mid / Long Term)	Lead Actors	Financing Options	Key Indicators
Climate Change & Oil Palm Policy	Translate climate projections into policy for oil palm expansion and support	Near (1–5 yrs): Issue advisory and moratoria in high-risk zones. Mid (5–15 yrs): Screen all NOPP support using climate data. Long (15+ yrs): Update policies with new projections.	FMARD, NIFOR, FMEnv	NOPP budget, climate funds, dev. banks	States adopting moratoria; % NOPP screened
Integrating Climate Projections	Ensure plans use climate information	Near: Mandate the use of climate layers. Mid: Build national agro-climate portal. Long: Institutionalize climate-agriculture unit.	FMARD, NiMet, NIFOR, research institutes	Public budgets, donor support	Portal use; % plans citing projections
Adaptation Strategies	Provide adaptation packages for farmers	Near: Promote soil conservation, mulching, drainage. Mid: Pilot irrigation, agroforestry. Long: Scale irrigation and restoration in refugia.	FMARD, NIFOR, states, universities	PPPs, Adaptation Fund, GCF	% smallholders reached; yield stability
Land-Use & Zoning	Direct expansion into climate-suitable zones	Near: Publish zoning maps. Mid: Condition incentives on compliance. Long: Embed in land-use plans & laws.	NIFOR, FMEnv, state land agencies, NOPP	Public funds, donor GIS support	New plantings in legal zones; deforestation trends
Climate-Smart Agriculture	Promote resilient practices	Near: Provide kits for mulching/cover crops. Mid: Reform extension curricula. Long: Incentives & certification for CSA farmers.	NIFOR, FMARD, extension services, processors	Subsidies, private CSR, donor grants	Adoption rates; yield variability
Water & Irrigation Policy	Secure water supply & manage floods	Near: Water availability mapping. Mid: Invest in small-scale irrigation and drainage. Long: Integrate oil palm into basin plans.	Min. of Water Resources, River Basin Auth.	Climate funds, blended finance	Area under irrigation; flood loss incidence
Research & Development	Breed tolerant genotypes, improve agronomy	Near: Multi-site trials of tolerant varieties. Mid: Create oil-palm climate research consortium. Long: Genomic breeding programs.	NIFOR, universities, private breeders	Public R&D, PPPs, donor science funds	Varieties released; adoption rates
Governance & Finance	Strengthen institutions & finance adaptation	Near: Form the national oil-palm climate taskforce. Mid: Develop weather-indexed insurance & blended finance. Long: Establish Oil Palm Adaptation Fund.	NIFOR, universities, and private breeders	Insurance schemes, donor co-finance	Funds mobilized; insurance uptake
Value Chain Diversification	Reduce risks via value-addition & new income streams	Near: Support local small mills. Mid: Encourage diversification with agroforestry. Long: Promote circular bioeconomy (waste to energy).	Min. of Trade & Investment, FMARD, NIFOR	SME credit, PPPs, green bonds	% processed locally; income diversification
Regional & International Cooperation	Leverage partnerships & finance	Near: Align with RSPO, NDCs. Mid: Tech transfer & bilateral support. Long: Regional landscape restoration programs.	FMEnv, Foreign Affairs, ECOWAS, NIFOR	Climate finance, bilateral funds	Funds mobilised; insurance uptake

Abbreviations

• FMARD – Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
• FMEnv – Federal Ministry of Environment
• NOPP – National Oil Palm Policy/Programme
• NiMet – Nigerian Meteorological Agency
• PPP – Public–Private Partnership
• GCF – Green Climate Fund CSA – Climate-Smart Agriculture
• NIFOR – Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research
• RSPO – Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil
• ECOWAS – Economic Community of West African States

References

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